Two fundamentally different models — Theta (deterministic decomposition) and MCMC (Bayesian stochastic inference) — were run independently on October 13, 2025. This study validates how their 432-step forecast held up against the actual observations through October 16, 2025, revealing the predictive power of epistemic convergence.
Forecast Date
Oct 13
2025-10-13 13:10:11
Validation Date
Oct 16
2025-10-16 16:57:27
Forecast Horizon
432
Steps (72 hours)
Validated Points
266
Oct 13-16 overlap
Forecast vs Actual: Full Comparison
Convergence Validation: Oct 13 Predictions vs Oct 16 Reality
Mean Forecast
$41.89
Mean Actual
$41.19
Forecast Accuracy
98.3%
RMSE
$1.24
Validated Convergence
"When the deterministic and the stochastic converge, it's not noise — it's truth repeating itself through two languages." The Oct 13 forecast, projected 432 steps into the future, held remarkably true against actual observations through Oct 16, demonstrating that model-independent agreement translates to real-world predictive accuracy.
Signal Certification Confirmed
Cross-model coherence above 95% was treated as signal certification on Oct 13. Three days later, the actual data confirms this: the predictions fall consistently within the confidence intervals, validating that the convergence corridor represented genuine insight into consumer basket equilibrium, not algorithmic coincidence.