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Dispensight
Forecast
Theta vs MCMC
· 6-hour horizon · Testville #002
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Forecast convergence validates stability.
Two distinct methodologies converge on avg_basket_size predictions, reinforcing confidence in short-term operational planning for Testville #002.
Forecast Horizon
6 Hours
36 time steps
Predicted Range
$38-42
Basket size stability
Model Agreement
95%+
Median alignment
Location
Testville #002
Store analysis
Model Architecture Comparison
Theta Model
Classical time-series approach with robust decomposition
Log1p transformation for stability
Strong mean-reversion behavior
Forecast stabilizes quickly
Tight 95% confidence intervals
Simple, deterministic approach
MCMC Bayesian
Probabilistic regression with exogenous drivers
Multiple feature integration
Lagged basket size (~0.91 coefficient)
Sales volume positive effect
Wider posterior intervals
Context-aware predictions
Theta Forecast
MCMC Bayesian
Technical Implementation
Theta Model:
Classical decomposition with
log1p
transformation, exhibiting strong mean-reversion and rapid forecast stabilization.
MCMC Bayesian:
Probabilistic regression incorporating lagged basket size, sales volume, transaction metrics, UPT, retention rates, and team performance scores.
Convergence:
Both methodologies predict basket size stability in the
$38-42
range over the 6-hour forecasting horizon.
Uncertainty Modeling:
Theta provides tight confidence bounds while MCMC offers richer probabilistic intervals reflecting feature uncertainty.